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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 86

New York Jets 12 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to JAX 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 41.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 86, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model