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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 4-L.Edwards punts 61 yards to JAX 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 23 for no gain (23-T.Brooks; 27-D.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.45 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP