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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:01) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to TEN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 14-N.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.26 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model