Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:34) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to PHI 27, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-D.Carter to PHI 38 for 11 yards (51-W.Compton; 48-B.Brinkley). PENALTY on PHI-22-S.Jones, Face Mask (15 Yards), 13 yards, enforced at PHI 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model