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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model