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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 9

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.97 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model