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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model