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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 33-D.Lewis to PHI 15 for 11 yards (24-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.34 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model