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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model