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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to PHI 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-D.Carter to TEN 39 for 42 yards (6-B.Kern).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.98 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model