4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:16) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model