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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model