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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to PHI 5, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model