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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model