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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to ARI 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.86 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.14 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.49 EP