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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 1 at the 44
Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10
What Actually Happened
(:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at 50 for -6 yards (55-C.Jones).
The Three Options
GO
+0.92 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.96 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.06 EP
KICK
+0.49 EP
- 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
- 54% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
