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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 56

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.63 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP