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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to ARI 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 24 for no gain (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.24 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model