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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model