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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model