Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CHI 33, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 10 yards (53-A.Taylor). PENALTY on CHI-84-B.Braunecker, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model