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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CHI 30, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model