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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Chicago Bears 38

What Actually Happened

(12:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to TB 38 for 4 yards (39-E.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model