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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 76

Chicago Bears 45 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to TB 31, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries. PENALTY on TB-26-A.Adams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.24 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model