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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Chicago Bears 45

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 12-C.Godwin to CHI 16 for 11 yards (58-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model