4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 28

Chicago Bears 45 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.32 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model