Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 14

(5:34) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to ARI 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.49 EP
74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model