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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 87

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to SF 36, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 36 for no gain (30-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.69 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model