Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 2-A.Lee punts 29 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 10. 81-T.Taylor to SF 10 for no gain (59-J.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.09 EP

KICK -0.59 EP

47% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
53% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model