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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 42

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 2-A.Lee punts 25 yards to SF 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-30-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.23 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP