Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 73

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle intended for 17-V.Bolden INTERCEPTED by 23-B.Benwikere at SF 47. 23-B.Benwikere to SF 26 for 21 yards (17-V.Bolden).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.85 EP
74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.27 EP