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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 4 at the 45
Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 6
What Actually Happened
(3:05) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.26 EP
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
- 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
KICK
-1.56 EP
- 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
- 69% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
What Happened
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
