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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 45

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to PIT 6, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-17-M.Hall. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at PIT 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.73 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model