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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 21

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:52) 5-M.Prater 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model