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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 49

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to GB 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP