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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 19% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model