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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 8 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(4:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles up the middle to DET 24 for 6 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.30 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model