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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 82

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 5-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to LAC 32, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to 50 for 18 yards (25-E.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.72 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP