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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to LV 9, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.46 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model