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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(:11) 3-M.McCrane 57 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.16 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model