Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 5-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to LAC 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 36 for 6 yards (85-D.Carrier). PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 36.

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.94 EP
75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model