4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.17 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP