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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 21

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 26

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-S.Roberts to LAC 14 for 7 yards (37-J.Addae).

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model