Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

(8:01) 5-J.Townsend punts 51 yards to LAC 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 21 for 8 yards (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model