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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 3-M.McCrane 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model