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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 5-D.Jones punts 59 yards to LV 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to LV 11 for 2 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.09 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP