4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (Run formation) 33-C.Ivory right guard to TEN 26 for 2 yards (26-L.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.26 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model