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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to TEN 5, impetus ends at TEN 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds. Punt credited as 48 yds. (to point of first touching). Ball batted backwards.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.74 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model