Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 7 – Tennessee Titans 6

(6:40) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to TEN 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-N.Williams to TEN 25 for 1 yard (26-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.35 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model