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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 9 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 4-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model